I thought the 2024 presidential election result would be a blowout.

It turned out I was right, but not for the candidate I expected. I thought Kamala Harris had it in the bag: She was younger, brighter, and a better thinker and debater. She had experience as state Attorney General, U.S. Senator, and was Vice President for nearly four years. She promoted freedom and democracy. Her opponent, Donald Trump was twice impeached, and he was a convicted felon. He loved autocrats and said crazy things. He had been indicted for attempting to overturn the 2020 election.

Where did I err? How was I so out of touch with the majority of American voters? Here are my thoughts about why Trump won.

1) “It’s the economy, stupid.” For many people, this was the most important issue. President Biden had increased inflation by dumping $1.9 trillion into the economy at the beginning of his term in March 2021. Food and gasoline prices increased, putting pressure on average householders. Housing costs increased. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to cut inflation, driving up mortgage interest rates and rental costs.

2) The second overriding issue for many voters was immigration. When Trump was president, he had effectively shut down the southern border, using draconian tactics like separating children from their parents, but it worked. When Biden became president, the flow of illegal immigrants soared, putting enormous pressure on southern border states. The governors of Texas and Florida sent many of those legal and illegal immigrants to northern cities, forcing idealistic Democratic mayors and governors to face reality about the inflow of immigrants. Biden acted in early 2024, but his new policy was too late for many voters.

Here’s my perception of how many conservatives think but don’t openly say: “This country was founded by Christian whites, and these brown-skinned immigrants and Muslims are inferior and dangerous. Trump is the man we need to protect us. He is the one to ‘Make [White] America Great Again’. It’s not possible that a multi-raced California liberal female can make us safe.”

3) The third major reason had to do with the LGBTQ+ issue. This was an issue that was deeply felt but rarely spoken about publicly. Many conservatives object to “correct pronouns”, transgender students in girls’ sports competitions and restrooms, and sex change operations being encouraged by school counselors for minors. This was an issue that the Trump campaign pumped out, especially in ads in late October and early November. It deeply resonated with conservative voters.

4) Character and gender topped the list for many. Most people who voted for Trump knew that he is a habitual liar. They knew that he can be ruthless and heartless. They knew he’s a narcissist.

But he was a “manly man” in their eyes. Women are supposed to be wives and mothers, not presidents, to a vast number of conservative Christian men and women. This belief was also found to be true among black and Latino voters, both male and female.

Relatedly, abortion became a major issue for many women. Seven of the ten states successfully passed initiatives guaranteeing abortion rights, but those attitudes did not mean that these women voted for Kamala Harris.

5) Saving democracy was a big deal for Democrats, but many conservatives don’t really care about this issue. What many conservatives value more is security and traditional values. If it means the president becomes more dictatorial, then it’s worth the cost to bring certainty to a nation that seems to be tearing itself apart in its culture wars.

President Biden has strongly supported Ukrainian democracy, but that problem, in the minds of many, really belongs to Europe. Our real concern, conservatives reason, is with Xi Jin Ping and China. If that means increased tariffs, it means more American jobs. Xi is tough and so is Trump. Harris is only a woman in a man’s world.

Trump won in the Electoral College, and he won the popular vote, too, a first for Republicans in decades. Trump won the majority of votes, close to what he had in 2020, but Harris lost 12 million voters who just didn’t show up. His victory shocked the world. Ironically, Trump had no complaints that the election was rigged.

Trump deeply understood the mood of the majority of American voters who overlooked his words and deeds. Democrats believed Trump’s words and deeds and deeply distrust him.

The question now is whether Trump is able to unify the country, or whether he even cares.

Richard Elfers is a columnist, a former Enumclaw City Council member and a Green River College professor.