Why is Vladimir Putin acting like he plans to invade Ukraine? Why did he make “non-starter” demands of NATO and President Biden knowing they would be rejected? There are at least three reasons why Putin has created a crisis on Russia’s southern border.
Before we look at the reasons for Putin’s actions, however, we need to understand some basic information about a major power like Russia invading a weaker neighbor like Ukraine.
Surprise is a major goal in any invasion. The quicker and more unexpected the invasion, the more likely the possibility of victory. The longer the delay, the more time Ukraine has to prepare, to find allies, and to find ways to resist. In war, failure is always a possibility. Invasion is risky and humiliating if it fails. Just consider the Russian and American losses in Afghanistan and the American loss in Vietnam.
Ukraine knows that it cannot win in a face-to-face battle with the Russian Army, but 130,000 Russian soldiers massing on Ukraine’s border are not enough to defeat Ukraine quickly and easily. Ukrainian President Zelensky knows that Ukrainian soldiers and civilians withdrawing into the mountains and waging guerrilla war against a Russian invasion will drain Russia’s already stressed economy and deplete its treasury. Zelensky is developing this strategy as a deterrence to Russia.
Additionally, the European Union will likely cut off oil and natural gas shipments over time from Russia and look to the United States and other petroleum-rich nations to supply their energy needs. That’s bad for Russia. Sanctions against Russia will also increase suffering for the Russian people and specifically for the wealthy oligarchs who own much of Russia’s industrial production.
This brings us to reasons why Putin continues to pressure the West over Ukraine.
1) Putin has turned Russia into a dictatorship. Russian incomes have diminished, and the population is aging rapidly while its standard of living is dropping. Russia’s poor economy makes Putin unpopular. By focusing on Ukraine, Putin has been able to distract the Russian people from its internal malaise by focusing the world on Russia’s military might. Putin has stirred up feelings of nationalism and nostalgia for the Soviet Union’s once great superpower status. At one time Ukraine gave the U.S.S.R. what experts call strategic depth. Strategic depth means that the distance between Moscow and a potential attack from the West is increased by using Ukraine as a buffer state, thus giving Mother Russia more time to prepare.
2) According to George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures in his Feb. 1, 2021 article entitled, “Russia’s True Strategy Shows Itself”, “Moscow want[s] to return to a status quo that it had held before the Soviet Union fell” [in 1991] with his demand that Ukraine never join NATO. But we are living in the age of medium and long-range missiles which do not have to be deployed close to Russia’s borders for protection. Putin knew before he made his demands that NATO and the U.S. would reject them as they have done.
3) “Another theory was that Russia always intended to invade Ukraine. It wanted the United States to reject its offer to justify a war” (Friedman). Nobody wants a war, not Russia, not the U.S., not the E.U., and especially not Ukraine. Wars between major powers can spiral out of control, leading to a world war where nobody wins. Friedman’s theory is that Putin is using Ukraine as a way to split and destroy NATO. The Europeans are split over how to deal with Russia. They need Russian oil and it would take time to find alternate sources. Germany especially needs Russian petroleum and wants to finish the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline through the Baltic Sea. Germany needs Russian petroleum more than it needs NATO. This creates tension and division in Europe.
Few of the European nations want to have to pay for their defense, and as a result, the U.S. doesn’t trust the Europeans to stand with the U.S. in a crisis. According to this theory, aggravating differences over Ukraine could permanently end NATO, thus strengthening Russia without firing a shot. Putin could then take over Ukraine militarily with no negative consequences and no more NATO.
At this point, opposition to Ukraine has not had its desired effect on the European Union. This theory explains why Putin has been so patient. Based on these theories, Putin is actually telling the truth about not intending to invade Ukraine. He has bigger goals than a war against Ukraine.
