When I was in my 20s, I created an axiom about human relations: “When a person (or group, or nation) changes, everyone else around that person (nation, group) must change, too.” This is especially true when understanding what is happening with the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan right now.

The U.S. and NATO invaded Afghanistan in 2001 as a result of the 9/11 attacks. Thus the U.S. got bogged down in America’s “longest war.” Although this is historically untrue (Americans fought Indigenous people in armed conflictsfrom the time of the colonies until the 1870s, and we are still officially at war with North Korea 71 years later), the Afghan War has been the one of the most expensive undeclared conflicts in our history.

First, President Trump promised to withdraw by May 2021. President Biden changed the date to September 11, declaring victory because we accomplished our mission of ridding ourselves of a safe base of operations for al-Qaeda. The reality is that we lost this war; the Taliban is poised to recapture control of the country. According to them, the Taliban already controls 85 percent of the country (Zolotova, Ekaterina. “A new Reality Emerges in Afghanistan”: Geopolitical Futures [GPF] 7/12/21).

Other nations are having to adjust to our departure. The information comes from GPF newsletters written between 7/16/21 and 7/29/21.

Turkey has promised the Afghan government that their soldiers will guard the Kabul airport. Seventy-six Turkish companies are involved in construction contracts. Between 2003 and 2018, according to Zolotova, these companies developed 701 projects worth roughly $6.6 billion. The Taliban criticized Turkey for promising to protect the airport, but they have generally positive feelings toward Turkey. To them, Turkey is too far away and thus does not pose an imminent threat.

Russia is concerned about its southern border in Central Asia, which acts as a buffer to the violence in Afghanistan. An unstable Afghanistan portends instability for Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, and thus for Russia. Violence and drugs could more easily flow into Russia from an unstable Central Asia. Russia has taken the tack of negotiating directly with the Taliban. The Taliban has agreed “not to allow its territory to be used to stage attacks on Russia.” In return, Russia has said it will consider removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations.

Islamic State fighters are moving into Afghanistan from Syria and Libya. Russia has responded by moving military equipment into Tajikistan. Uzbekistan will also participate in military drills with the other two nations.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 27 to discuss Afghanistan. Russia joined in these talks.

Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan, is deeply concerned that India and China, its enemies, might use these agreements to outflank them.

Chinese delegates are meeting with the Taliban. “China supports the Taliban’s role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction but wants the group to cut ties with an Islamic movement responsible for attacks in China’s mostly Muslim Xinjiang region… [where the Uighurs are being imprisoned and tortured by the Chinese].”

As the U.S. leaves Afghanistan, it is looking to neighboring nations to set up military bases. In 2002 Iran was “deeply ambivalent about the U.S. presence in Central Asia. Many officials in Iran and China fear[ed] further encirclement by the United States” (National Intelligence Council [NIC] 2002).

Comments from Geoffrey Kemp in that same NIC article can be extrapolated to understand that Iran’s long, shared border with Afghanistan and the potential return of the Sunni Muslim Taliban to power means growing concern about increased drug traffic. Additionally, Iran is a Shia Muslim nation with a Sunni Muslim minority which feels it is treated poorly by the Iranian government. The Taliban has the potential to create religious tensions within Iran and its hardline Shiite leaders. Iran lost 3,000 soldiers and police in border skirmishes with Taliban Afghanistan in the 1990s and doesn’t want to see a return to conflict with a resurgent Taliban.

Relationships, no matter whether they are on the international, national, or personal level are complex. It’s like putting a rubber band around your fingers and thumb. If the thumb changes its position, all the other digits feel the pressure and respond accordingly. Becoming aware of this very human law of relationships can help to give us all insight into human dynamics, no matter the level. “When a person [group, nation] changes, everyone else around that person [nation, group] must change, too.”